Brief
The starting point for this quantitative picture is a set of CSIS wargames — run in nearly two dozen iterations of a simulated U.S.-China war over Taiwan — that modeled U.S. long-range munitions expenditure against a known, small prewar inventory. A House Select Committee-published CSIS simulation table put the 2024 total LRASM inventory at 440-450 rounds and showed the full stock used in three to seven days of simulated combat. JASSM-ER inventory was modeled at roughly 500 (with a total JASSM family near 1,200-1,300 including basic variants), exhausted at roughly 30 days; Tomahawk inventory was modeled around 4,000 rounds, with few actually fired because surface ships remained largely outside the Taiwan Strait's threat envelope until week four. A separate Maritime Executive summary of the same CSIS study cites average expenditure across iterations of about 4,000 JASSMs, 450 LRASMs, and 400 land-attack Tomahawks over a three-week war, with LRASM inventories exhausted in under a week in every run and JASSM stocks gone by day nine on average.
What has changed the picture since those 2023-vintage wargames is that a real conflict has since drawn down the same weapon classes the simulations modeled. CSIS's own post-conflict analysis states that in the 39-day Operation Epic Fury campaign against Iran (February-April 2026), the U.S. fired over 1,100 JASSMs — more than a fifth of the roughly 4,000-missile prewar inventory the wargames themselves assumed — while a CSIS-based Al Jazeera analysis states the U.S. likely used up more than 1,000 of its roughly 3,000 Tomahawks. A single-source but widely circulated figure (Bloomberg, cited April 4, 2026, not yet independently corroborated by a second Tier 1-2 outlet in this search) put worldwide serviceable JASSM-ER stock at approximately 425 rounds after the Pentagon pulled Pacific-theater missiles into the Iran fight, against a prewar global JASSM-ER inventory of about 2,300. CSIS's own account is more conservative and does not confirm the 425 figure, instead stating that more than 1,100 JASSMs were expended and that inventories will recover relatively quickly given existing order flow — a real divergence between sources that should be read as a range, not resolved to a single number.
On the production side, the gap between wargame-implied burn rates and actual manufacturing capacity is the central constraint. CSIS's May 2026 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' analysis states that Tomahawk procurement averaged just 86 missiles per year over the past decade (FY2015-FY2026), against a Raytheon-stated production goal of more than 1,000 annually — a goal not yet realized. A July 2026 JINSA report states the Pentagon procured only about 64 Tomahawks in the 2026 fiscal year against a 250-per-year 'normal' production rate. The FY2027 budget request seeks a sharp correction: Naval News reports a request for 785 Tomahawks at a cost of just over $3.0 billion, and separate reporting shows the Navy structuring the buy as 58 in the base FY2027 request plus 727 through the reconciliation vehicle. JASSM and LRASM sit in a different position: JINSA's July 2026 report states JASSM-ER orders of roughly 550 per year already exceed the system's 325-per-year 'normal' rate, and Lockheed Martin's own figures (via FlightGlobal, August 2026) put combined JASSM/LRASM output at the Troy, Alabama lines at 720 missiles annually as of 2024, with a stated ceiling of 1,100 if fully funded. For LRASM specifically, Air Force budget documents summarized by Air & Space Forces Magazine show the FY2025 buy at 115 rounds and the FY2026 request at 118, against a stated maximum 2026 production rate of 240 — meaning even at full throttle, LRASM manufacturing capacity remains an order of magnitude below the roughly 450-round stock that CSIS's wargames showed exhausted within a week of a Taiwan air campaign.
The FY2027 request shows the scale of the correction Pentagon planners are now attempting. The Aviationist reports the FY2027 budget proposes procuring 821 JASSMs and 333 LRASMs, alongside 785 Tomahawks and 1,134 Precision Strike Missiles — the JASSM figure alone exceeding the entire wargame-modeled three-week Taiwan campaign consumption of roughly 500 JASSM-ERs in a single year's planned buy. Naval News separately reports the LRASM request specifically fell to 177 rounds in an April 2026 Navy-only accounting (a 23-missile decrease from the 2026 fiscal year), a figure that sits below the JINSA/Aviationist totals — a discrepancy likely reflecting Navy-only versus joint Air Force-Navy totals that this scan cannot fully reconcile from the sources available. Unit costs anchor the affordability side of the equation: LRASM runs upward of $3 million per round per Air & Space Forces Magazine's citation of budget documents (with Wikipedia's sourced figure at $3.24 million in the 2024 fiscal year dollars), while Tomahawk Block V carries an official FY2026 unit cost of $2.5 million with contract-price variation between $1.75 million and $4.1 million depending on variant and lot size.
The Numbers (16)
CSIS-modeled LRASM inventory used in Taiwan wargame (2024 baseline)
~440-450 rounds▼ Down
This was the entire modeled U.S. LRASM stock and was shown fully expended in three to seven days of simulated Taiwan air campaign combat across the wargame's iterations.
As of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published document; corroborated by Maritime Executive and Defense Daily reportingHigh confidence
CSIS-modeled JASSM-ER inventory and exhaustion timeline
~500 rounds, exhausted at ~30 days modeled▼ Down
JASSM-ER was the preferred long-range strike variant in the wargame because JASSM-Basic's shorter range made it unsuitable; average time to exhaustion across all CSIS iterations was reported separately as day nine.
As of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published documentHigh confidence
CSIS-modeled Tomahawk inventory used in wargame
~4,000 rounds modeled; few actually fired in simulation▬ Flat
Surface ships carrying Tomahawks remained mostly outside the Taiwan Strait threat envelope until week four of the simulated campaign, so the large modeled inventory was barely drawn upon relative to LRASM and JASSM.
As of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published documentMedium confidence
JASSM family real-world expenditure, Operation Epic Fury (Iran war)
Over 1,100 fired (CSIS); ~1,000 per Al Jazeera/CSIS-sourced reporting▼ Down
This real-world expenditure, against a roughly 4,000-missile prewar JASSM inventory, consumed more than a fifth of global stock before any Taiwan contingency began, directly eroding the baseline the 2023-era wargames assumed.
As of February-April 2026 (39-day campaign)CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (May 27, 2026) and CSIS-sourced Al Jazeera reporting (July 15, 2026)High confidence
Global serviceable JASSM-ER stock after Iran war drawdown
~425 rounds (single-source, not independently corroborated)▼ Down
CSIS's own analysis states over 1,100 JASSMs expended but does not confirm this specific 425-round remaining-stock figure; the discrepancy should be read as a range pending independent corroboration, not treated as an established fact.
As of April 4, 2026Bloomberg reporting as cited by shatterbelt.co and a Substack aggregator; flagged single-source and not confirmed by CSIS's own published figuresLow confidence
Tomahawk real-world expenditure, Operation Epic Fury
Over 1,000 fired, per CSIS/Al Jazeera; 400 fired in first 72 hours per 19FortyFive▼ Down
Against a prewar Tomahawk inventory CSIS Al Jazeera reporting puts at roughly 3,000, this expenditure rate represents a double-digit percentage drawdown before Pacific theater requirements are addressed.
As of February-April 2026CSIS-sourced Al Jazeera reporting (July 15, 2026); 19FortyFive (March 3, 2026)Medium confidence
Tomahawk annual procurement, 10-year average (FY2015-FY2026)
86 missiles/year average▬ Flat
This decade-long average sits an order of magnitude below the roughly 1,000 Tomahawks Operation Epic Fury consumed in weeks, illustrating why CSIS assesses full inventory restoration will take years.
As of FY2015-FY2026, published May 27, 2026CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (Cancian and Park, May 27, 2026)High confidence
Tomahawk FY2026 actual deliveries vs 'normal' production rate
~64 delivered vs 250/year normal rate (JINSA); other reporting cites 57 FY2026 procurement▼ Down
Actual FY2026 output ran at roughly a quarter of the historically normal annual production rate, reflecting years of underfunded orders rather than a hard manufacturing ceiling.
As of FY2026, published July 20, 2026JINSA Gemunder Center July 2026 Munitions Report; corroborating figure from Defense Mirror (March 30, 2026)Medium confidence
Tomahawk FY2027 procurement request
785 missiles requested, ~$3.0 billion▲ Up
This request is roughly nine times the 10-year historical annual average, signaling the Pentagon's attempt to correct the Tomahawk shortfall exposed by Operation Epic Fury.
As of FY2027 budget request, reported April 2026Naval News (April 2026) and The Aviationist (April 23, 2026)High confidence
Raytheon (RTX) stated Tomahawk production goal vs recent actual rate
Goal >1,000/year; recent actual <200/year
The gap between stated capacity ceiling and realized output is driven by insufficient firm orders rather than a physical production constraint, according to CSIS's assessment.
As of Published May 27, 2026CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (Cancian and Park, May 27, 2026)Medium confidence
LRASM FY2025/FY2026 procurement vs maximum production rate
115 (FY25) / 118 (FY26) procured vs 240/year maximum rate▬ Flat
Even at the stated maximum production rate, LRASM output remains far below the roughly 440-450 round stockpile that CSIS wargaming showed exhausted within a week of a Taiwan air campaign.
As of FY2025-FY2026 budget documents, reported August 1, 2025Air & Space Forces Magazine, citing Air Force budget documentsHigh confidence
JASSM-ER annual orders vs 'normal' production rate
~550/year recent orders vs 325/year normal rate▲ Up
JASSM-ER is the one system in this set where recent orders already exceed the historically normal production rate, reflecting sustained multiyear procurement contracts signed before the Iran war.
As of Published July 20, 2026JINSA Gemunder Center July 2026 Munitions ReportMedium confidence
FY2027 JASSM and LRASM procurement request
821 JASSM and 333 LRASM requested▲ Up
The 821-round JASSM request alone exceeds the roughly 500-round JASSM-ER stock that CSIS's Taiwan wargames modeled being exhausted after about 30 days of simulated combat.
As of FY2027 budget request, reported April 23, 2026The Aviationist, citing Pentagon FY2027 budget documentsHigh confidence
Lockheed Martin combined JASSM/LRASM production capacity (Troy, AL lines)
720 missiles/year actual (2024); stated ceiling of 1,100/year with firm orders▲ Up
This combined-line capacity must cover both JASSM and LRASM demand simultaneously, meaning the 1,100-unit ceiling is not additive to the individual system production rates cited elsewhere.
As of 2024 figures reported August 5, 2025FlightGlobal, citing Lockheed Martin officialsMedium confidence
LRASM unit cost
~$3-3.24 million per round▬ Flat
At this unit cost, the FY2027 request for 333 LRASM rounds represents roughly $1 billion in procurement value for a single year's buy.
As of FY2024 figuresAir & Space Forces Magazine (citing budget documents) and Wikipedia-sourced FY24 figure of $3.24 millionMedium confidence
Tomahawk Block V unit cost
Official FY2026 unit cost $2.5 million; contract prices range $1.75-$4.1 million by variant/lot▬ Flat
The wide contract-price range reflects lot-size economics and variant differences (land-attack vs anti-ship Maritime Strike Tomahawk), meaning headline unit-cost figures can understate real acquisition cost at smaller lot sizes.
As of FY2026GovFacts, citing FY2026 budget documentationMedium confidence
Facts & Figures (16)
The claims behind this analysis, each with its verification status — including what is contested, unverified, or could not be established.
CSIS-modeled LRASM inventory used in Taiwan wargame (2024 baseline): ~440-450 rounds
This was the entire modeled U.S. LRASM stock and was shown fully expended in three to seven days of simulated Taiwan air campaign combat across the wargame's iterations.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published document; corroborated by Maritime Executive and Defense Daily reporting · as of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026 · High confidence
CSIS-modeled JASSM-ER inventory and exhaustion timeline: ~500 rounds, exhausted at ~30 days modeled
JASSM-ER was the preferred long-range strike variant in the wargame because JASSM-Basic's shorter range made it unsuitable; average time to exhaustion across all CSIS iterations was reported separately as day nine.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published document · as of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026 · High confidence
CSIS-modeled Tomahawk inventory used in wargame: ~4,000 rounds modeled; few actually fired in simulation
Surface ships carrying Tomahawks remained mostly outside the Taiwan Strait threat envelope until week four of the simulated campaign, so the large modeled inventory was barely drawn upon relative to LRASM and JASSM.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS wargame simulation table via House Select Committee on the CCP published document · as of 2024 inventory baseline, wargame results published 2023-2026 · Medium confidence
JASSM family real-world expenditure, Operation Epic Fury (Iran war): Over 1,100 fired (CSIS); ~1,000 per Al Jazeera/CSIS-sourced reporting
This real-world expenditure, against a roughly 4,000-missile prewar JASSM inventory, consumed more than a fifth of global stock before any Taiwan contingency began, directly eroding the baseline the 2023-era wargames assumed.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (May 27, 2026) and CSIS-sourced Al Jazeera reporting (July 15, 2026) · as of February-April 2026 (39-day campaign) · High confidence
Global serviceable JASSM-ER stock after Iran war drawdown: ~425 rounds (single-source, not independently corroborated)
CSIS's own analysis states over 1,100 JASSMs expended but does not confirm this specific 425-round remaining-stock figure; the discrepancy should be read as a range pending independent corroboration, not treated as an established fact.
— FROM THE RECORDper Bloomberg reporting as cited by shatterbelt.co and a Substack aggregator; flagged single-source and not confirmed by CSIS's own published figures · as of April 4, 2026 · Low confidence
Tomahawk real-world expenditure, Operation Epic Fury: Over 1,000 fired, per CSIS/Al Jazeera; 400 fired in first 72 hours per 19FortyFive
Against a prewar Tomahawk inventory CSIS Al Jazeera reporting puts at roughly 3,000, this expenditure rate represents a double-digit percentage drawdown before Pacific theater requirements are addressed.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS-sourced Al Jazeera reporting (July 15, 2026); 19FortyFive (March 3, 2026) · as of February-April 2026 · Medium confidence
Tomahawk annual procurement, 10-year average (FY2015-FY2026): 86 missiles/year average
This decade-long average sits an order of magnitude below the roughly 1,000 Tomahawks Operation Epic Fury consumed in weeks, illustrating why CSIS assesses full inventory restoration will take years.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (Cancian and Park, May 27, 2026) · as of FY2015-FY2026, published May 27, 2026 · High confidence
Tomahawk FY2026 actual deliveries vs 'normal' production rate: ~64 delivered vs 250/year normal rate (JINSA); other reporting cites 57 FY2026 procurement
Actual FY2026 output ran at roughly a quarter of the historically normal annual production rate, reflecting years of underfunded orders rather than a hard manufacturing ceiling.
— FROM THE RECORDper JINSA Gemunder Center July 2026 Munitions Report; corroborating figure from Defense Mirror (March 30, 2026) · as of FY2026, published July 20, 2026 · Medium confidence
Tomahawk FY2027 procurement request: 785 missiles requested, ~$3.0 billion
This request is roughly nine times the 10-year historical annual average, signaling the Pentagon's attempt to correct the Tomahawk shortfall exposed by Operation Epic Fury.
— FROM THE RECORDper Naval News (April 2026) and The Aviationist (April 23, 2026) · as of FY2027 budget request, reported April 2026 · High confidence
Raytheon (RTX) stated Tomahawk production goal vs recent actual rate: Goal >1,000/year; recent actual <200/year
The gap between stated capacity ceiling and realized output is driven by insufficient firm orders rather than a physical production constraint, according to CSIS's assessment.
— FROM THE RECORDper CSIS 'Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory' (Cancian and Park, May 27, 2026) · as of Published May 27, 2026 · Medium confidence
LRASM FY2025/FY2026 procurement vs maximum production rate: 115 (FY25) / 118 (FY26) procured vs 240/year maximum rate
Even at the stated maximum production rate, LRASM output remains far below the roughly 440-450 round stockpile that CSIS wargaming showed exhausted within a week of a Taiwan air campaign.
— FROM THE RECORDper Air & Space Forces Magazine, citing Air Force budget documents · as of FY2025-FY2026 budget documents, reported August 1, 2025 · High confidence
JASSM-ER annual orders vs 'normal' production rate: ~550/year recent orders vs 325/year normal rate
JASSM-ER is the one system in this set where recent orders already exceed the historically normal production rate, reflecting sustained multiyear procurement contracts signed before the Iran war.
— FROM THE RECORDper JINSA Gemunder Center July 2026 Munitions Report · as of Published July 20, 2026 · Medium confidence
FY2027 JASSM and LRASM procurement request: 821 JASSM and 333 LRASM requested
The 821-round JASSM request alone exceeds the roughly 500-round JASSM-ER stock that CSIS's Taiwan wargames modeled being exhausted after about 30 days of simulated combat.
— FROM THE RECORDper The Aviationist, citing Pentagon FY2027 budget documents · as of FY2027 budget request, reported April 23, 2026 · High confidence
Lockheed Martin combined JASSM/LRASM production capacity (Troy, AL lines): 720 missiles/year actual (2024); stated ceiling of 1,100/year with firm orders
This combined-line capacity must cover both JASSM and LRASM demand simultaneously, meaning the 1,100-unit ceiling is not additive to the individual system production rates cited elsewhere.
— FROM THE RECORDper FlightGlobal, citing Lockheed Martin officials · as of 2024 figures reported August 5, 2025 · Medium confidence
LRASM unit cost: ~$3-3.24 million per round
At this unit cost, the FY2027 request for 333 LRASM rounds represents roughly $1 billion in procurement value for a single year's buy.
— FROM THE RECORDper Air & Space Forces Magazine (citing budget documents) and Wikipedia-sourced FY24 figure of $3.24 million · as of FY2024 figures · Medium confidence
Tomahawk Block V unit cost: Official FY2026 unit cost $2.5 million; contract prices range $1.75-$4.1 million by variant/lot
The wide contract-price range reflects lot-size economics and variant differences (land-attack vs anti-ship Maritime Strike Tomahawk), meaning headline unit-cost figures can understate real acquisition cost at smaller lot sizes.
— FROM THE RECORDper GovFacts, citing FY2026 budget documentation · as of FY2026 · Medium confidence